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EFSA-EPPO Modelling Workshop

Joint EFSA-EPPO Workshop: Modelling in Plant Healthhow can models support
risk assessment of plant pests and decision making?

Parma, Italy, 12-14 December 2016


After a successful first joint workshop on ‘Data collection and information sharing in plant health’ in 2014 (Roy et al. 2014), EPPO and the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) held a second joint workshop in EFSA headquarters in Parma to discuss how models can support risk assessment of plant pests and decision-making in plant health.

Approximately 150 scientists, technical experts on risk assessment, plant health risk managers and stakeholders from 41 countries attended this workshop.
More than 40 lectures were delivered and 30 posters presented. The workshop also included time for discussion and in each session, a risk assessor and a risk manager expressed their point of view to stimulate dialogue.

Both EFSA and EPPO considered the workshop a success and agreed to continue to work closely together on these issues. However the workshop also demonstrated how much work remains to be done among and between modellers and risk managers if models are to become routinely useful tools in plant health regulation. Seven papers based on the work presented during this Workshop are published in the EPPO Bulletin (August issue).


  Book of abstracts
Status of modelling in risk assessment and across the world Chair: Francoise Petter
Introduction to the workshop Hans Verhagen
Models used in quantitative risk assessment in plant health Mike Jeger
(EFSA, PLH Panel)
Modelling potential establishment hotspots of exotic pests of high significance “flying under the radar” in USA Manuel Colunga
Plant health modelling in Australasia Darren Kriticos
From sessile to free-moving hosts: modelling in support of animal health risk assessment Hans Thulke
Challenges faced by risk managers - can models help? Martin Ward
Quantitative pathway models in practise Chair: Gianni Gilioli
(EFSA, PLH Panel)
The EFSA quantitative approach to pest risk assessment - Methodological aspects and case studies Gritta Schrader
A model for quantitative pathway analysis of plant pest introduction to the EU territory by trade John Mumford 
(Imperial College, UK)
Modelling the probability of transfer of a pest from an imported commodity Dirk Jan van der Gaag
A pathway model for wood pests to support risk assessment and decision making on trade regulation Christelle Robinet
HARMVECT-a simulation-based tool for pathway risk maps of invasive arthropods in Belgium Nick Berkvens
Approaches to model entry and spread Chair: Salla Hannunen
Economic strategies to minimise the probability of introduction of invasive pathogens through trade Vasthi Alonso Chavez
(Rothamsted Research, UK)
Bioeconomic modelling of spatial spread and control of forest epidemics: Policy-driven and voluntary strategies Adam Kleczkowski
(University Stirling, UK)
Spread model of bacterial canker of kiwifruit in Europe Anne Wilstermann
Modelling the dispersal of Monochamus galloprovincialis, the vector of the pine wood nematode, and assessing the effectiveness of clear-cutting measures Xavier Tassus
Vector behaviour and plant defence influence vector-borne pathogen spread: assessing risks of enhanced spread of Xylella fastidiosa from grapevines with novel defensive traits Adam R. Zeilinger
Approaches to model pest establishment Chair: Richard Baker
Exploiting the high resolution JRC-MARS European climatic dataset for pest risk mapping Alan Macleod
Relative roles of climatic and spatial factors in the geographical range of citrus black spot Antonio Vicent
Mechanistic modelling of root rot, wind and bark beetle dynamics in Finland Juha Honkaniemi
(Natural Resources Institute, FI)
Application and use of insect phenology modelling for regional and global pest risk assessments Juergen Kroschel
Physiologically based model to assess the probability of establishment of plant pests including a case study on Pomacea spp. Gianni Gilioli
(University of Brescia; EFSA, PLH Panel)
Approaches to model impact and control Chair: Gritta Schrader
The modelling elements in a new methodology by EFSA to assess environmental impact of plant pests Gianni Gilioli
(University of Brescia; EFSA, PLH Panel)
Model-based identification and optimization of key parameters for sharka management strategy Gaël Thébaud
Modelling epidemiological and economic consequences of Flavescence dorée to Austrian viticulture Helga Reisenzein
Disease control strategies: a modelling case study Christopher Finn McQuaid
(Rothamsted Research, UK)
Modelling for natural enemy distribution and potential efficacy in biocontrol Norma Mujica
The neglected importance of network analysis to prevent, manage and understand crop pest outbreaks Giovanni Strona
Models for pest prioritization Chair: Muriel Suffert
FinnPRIO: The Finnish model for ranking invasive pests Salla Hannunen
BiOR²: a database/software process dedicated to plant pests ranking in France Christine Tayeh
Pest risk ranking model in the Netherlands Dirk Jan van der Gaag
The ERIN system to identify, describe and rank new plant health threats in Norway Trond Rafoss
(Norwegian PLH Panel, NO)
The UK Plant Health Risk Register Helen Anderson
A pest risk ranking model for exotic arthropods in the USA Manuel Colunga
New modelling tools in Plant Health Chair: Stefan Niemeyer
Modern approaches to surveillance for invading plant pests Stephen Parnell
(University Salford, UK)
The Agro-Economic Modelling Platform of JRC a tool for assessing plant health impact? Emilio Rodríguez Cerezo
What role for meta-analysis in plant health risk assessment? David Makowski
Model “Success” Depends on the Decision-Making Situation Barney Caton
Bayesian approach to modelling pest introduction Jonathan Yuen
Risk based management of invading plant disease Nik Cunniffee
(University of Cambridge, UK)
EFSA’s activities and plans around sharing and designing Risk Assessment Models Didier Verloo



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